OK, here is how it plays out from here. First of all, let's just assume that UGA wins the rest of it's games - after all, we are all Dawgs.
Here is the current BCS, but after this weekend, the polls will look a little different (let's just talk BCS for now). We know that with just the Oregon loss, we are no worse than #8 going into the KY game.
1. LSU 2. Oregon 3. Kansas 4. Oklahoma 5. Missouri 6. WVU 7. Ohio St 8. Ariz St 9. UGA 10. Va Tech
Now, I don't think Oregon will be the only loser this weekend - consider the kind of year we have seen so far. Kansas should be fine, OK could get a scare against Tex A&M, Missouri is playing what ESPN calls a classic trap game at K State, WVU should be fine in Cincy, Ohio State goes to the Big House where we all know what can and usually does happen.
So, going into the final week of the season all it takes is 2-3 of the 4 of the upset/trap games to play out. I predict this after this weekend:
1. LSU 2. Kansas 3. OK 4. Missouri 5. WVU 6. Ariz St 7. UGA 8. Va Tech 9. Oregon 10. USC (setting up a showdown on Thurs 11/22 with Ariz State - more on that in a minute)
OK, the last weekend. First of all KY beats UT which clears the way for UGA to win the east and moive into the SEC Championship Game (I know, we do better if we don't go and grab an at-large BCS bid instead of playing LSU - just stay with me). Ariz State gets USC and probably gets embarrased. That sits UGA at #6. Missouri beats Kansas and earns a trip to the Big 12 Champ game against OK (who, we will assume wins out - though they have a few traps along the way as well). So, UGA at #5. Here we are after Nov 24.
1. LSU 2. OK 3. Missouri 4. WVU 5. UGA 6. Kansas 7. USC 8. Va Tech 9. Oregon 10. Az State
OK, let's now look at the fallout from the Champ games. First of all, UGA comes out for pregame warmups with no pants on, and rides that emotion to an upset in Atlanta. WVU loses to Uconn or Pitt (payback for 1981 - screw you Marino). Doesn't matter who wins the Big 12 game, but lets assume it's OK. Here is how we look on BCS Selection Sunday (Dec 3)
1. OK (12-1) 2. UGA (11-2) (it gets cloudy after this, but does it really matter?) 3. LSU (11-2) 4. Kansas (11-1) 5. USC (10-2)
6. Missouri (11-2)
And that is how an 11-2 team with a home loss to a 6-7 win South Carolina and an ugly loss to Tenn can climb back into the Nat'l Championship race.
Russ